Cum hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy

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Sorry, your browser does not support inline frames. Nobody seriously believes that there is anything more than a coincidence in that odd and insignificant fact. Therefore, C caused E.

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The cum hoc fallacy is committed when it is assumed that because two things occur together, they must be causally related. This, however, does not follow; correlation is possible without causation. This fallacy is closely related to the post hoc fallacy.

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The post hoc ergo propter hoc after this therefore because of this fallacy is based upon the mistaken notion that simply because one thing happens after another, the first event was a cause of the second event. Post hoc reasoning is the basis for many superstitions and erroneous beliefs. Many events follow sequential patterns without being causally related.

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Remember, correlation does not equal causation. You cannot blame your friends for a rain delay just because every time they go with you to a ballgame it storms and play is delayed. Likewise, because a baseball pitcher grows a beard or wears the same socks, etc. The search for causes of diseases is rife with post hoc examples.

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Post hoc is a particularly tempting error because temporal sequence appears to be integral to causality. The fallacy lies in coming to a conclusion based solely on the order of events, rather than taking into account other factors that might rule out the connection. However, the ethical philosopher or skeptic will find that such a definition is wholly inadequate when applied to variations on truth in the real world.

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Post hoc ergo propter hoc Latin : "after this, therefore because of this" is an informal fallacy that states: "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X. A logical fallacy of the questionable cause variety, it is subtly different from the fallacy cum hoc ergo propter hoc "with this, therefore because of this"in which two events occur simultaneously or the chronological ordering is insignificant or unknown. Post hoc is a particularly tempting error because correlation appears to suggest causality.

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The fact that a rooster crows at sunrise does not mean it causes the sunset, the fact that you find sick people in a hospital does not mean that the hospital makes people sick. The subject came up again this week in a discussion about engagement as a determining factor in successful team management. It was in an Agile forum and common in that field to see lists of qualities of this nature and in some cases training events or even two or three day courses devoted to happiness.

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